The Sordid Proxy War

$30 Billion to Israel, 13 to Egypt, and 20 to Saudi Arabia and Gulf states ... a pretty big sum of money for the US to offer at one time. What makes it an extremely crucial deal is the factor of time, sum, and the attached agenda.

Iran is roaring out of the US control, Bush feel and is week in Iraq and the ME, and the US allies seems to be slipping away from their Uncle Sam friend.

For sometime Bush has been using diplomacy to deal with the Iranian nuclear program, aka using the Rice approach; seemingly diplomacy yielded out ineffective, Bush is turning to the Cheney approach. The Guardian reported that Bush has debated the military choice in dealing with Iran and eventually "the balance in the internal White House debate over Iran has shifted back in favor of military action."

"Cheney has limited capital left, but if he wanted to use all his capital on this one issue, he could still have an impact," said Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Apparently, Cheney played all his capital and managed to mobilize the White House towards a more-than-diplomatic action against Iran. However, the US current situation in Iraq doesn't allow it to argue for any kind of further direct military action in the region. Thus, the old game of Uncle Sam has to be played, proxy wars as Ramzy Baroud calls it.

Factors for Success

For such kind of strategy, factors of success is an enemy, with power, and and incentive for conflict to happen. In other words, Iran has to be having an active competitive enemy in the Middle East.

The Gulf states is one. Yet, how much is it militarily capable of confronting the almost nuclear Iranian rival? Size of states and military capabilities of the Gulf states collected would not present a viable threat to Iran. Hence, the enemy factor is satisfied, yet the power is not.
At this point, the US needed to attach some kind of power for the Gulf states to be able to stand for the US against Iran.

The Rice and Gates visit perfectly fits in. Time-wise and agenda-wise arming the Gulf states with assistance support is the only apparent way out for the US administration to bring the Iranian power expansion to an end.

$13 billion to Egypt and $20 billion to Saudi Arabia and Gulf states - as reported by Reuters - made the joint statement of the eight Arab states in the Foreign Minister's meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Egypt, Jordan, and the United States in Sharm El-Sheikh on the 31st of July state: "The participants expressed their steadfast support to any Gulf states in facing external threats to its sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Now, Gulf states do have power, enmity is already there with Iran, yet an incentive of conflict is awaited.

The US administration is not too naive to put its oil interests in the Gulf under the Iranian threat, one would argue. However, that would be the same exact point the US would need to back the Gulf up with arms and supporters. It would be a new card the US can use against Iran in any future expected negotiations.